Sudan and ICC: the Moment of Truth

The International Criminal Court (ICC) is facing its greatest challenge since its creation, in 2002. After receiving a green light from the Security Council to prosecute those in charge with the mass murders that occurred in the last five years in Darfur, the ICC is expected to take legal action against some of the top officials in the Sudanese government, possibly even the president of the country.

Almost 400,000 people are projected to have died in Darfur since the conflict began in 2004. An estimated 2,5 million people have already been displaced, the majority of them currently living in refugee camps in Chad, the neighboring country. While the ISS has received a mandate to prosecute anyone who can be found responsible for the terrible human losses in Darfur, the Sudanese government has never officially recognized the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. Nevertheless, on the 27^th of February, 2007, the Court named a Sudanese minister and a militia commander as the first suspects who are allegedly responsible for crimes against humanity in Darfur. At that time, the administration had to allow the prosecution to investigate the two leaders, amid continuous pressure from the Chinese authorities. However, it has continued to protect both of them arguing that the Sudanese government can insure a fair trial in Khartoum for the two leaders. China is the number one economic partner of Sudan, controlling 13 out of the 15 companies that are authorized by the government to conduct business in the country.

It is hard to know what exactly will happen if the president will be called out to face charges of crimes against humanity. However, regardless of the ICC’s decision, one thing is for sure: when the names will be released, the security of the UN peacekeepers in Darfur will be further jeopardized. 7 UN peacekeepers were killed yesterday following an ambush orchestrated by the local militia. The UN Secretary General has already spoken against the killings and further actions are expected.

The situation now in Sudan is by far one of the most complicated situations even the UN has ever faced. The International Criminal Court is supposed to go after the high-ranked officials who are suspected to have committed crimes against humanity, regardless of political biases. It is, in theory, immune to outside interventions or political pressures, and is highly supported by many influential leaders. But how will the situation be solved if the IC will indict the whole government, is a question for which no one really has a suitable answer at this time. Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir is definitely on the short list for prosecution. Chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has been gathering evidence to prosecute the president for crimes against humanities and genocidal attacks.

While journalists should ask themselves how will the Sudanese government accept such an indictment, most people rightfully pose a complementary question: what will China do if such a prosecution will go forward? It is widely accepted that without the strong support of the Chinese government, members of the Sudanese administration would have been prosecuted a long time ago. However, one could also think that the sudden prosecution of the president was carefully planned just before the Beijing Olympics so that China could not really force the hand of the ICC at this time.

The Chinese government has been militating for world peace and regional stability and it is also a strong promoter of non-intervention. In all fairness, China hasn’t gotten itself involved in any major conflict on the continent. However, China is considered the biggest gun and ammunition seller in Africa, making up to 2 billion dollars a year from this business. This has been a continuous process that started a long time ago with financing different sectors of the Ethiopian army. In time, many other African statesmen have benefited from China’s military industry buying billions and billions worth of guns only to use them against their own people or other neighboring countries.

If the president of Sudan is prosecuted, this will be a major hit to Chinese diplomacy. If he isn’t, it will be a major hit to the ICC’s legitimacy and influence.

Another political actor that could intervene in the conflict is Russia. In the last months, Russia has been showing its support to several African autocratic leaders. Russia could also slow down the process or even make it impossible for the ICC to indict the Sudanese president and his associates.

The cruel reality at the end of the day is that a tribunal that is supposed to bring peace and stability and at least a form of moral justice to the hundreds of thousands of people who died in vain in the last 4 years in Sudan is being threatened to be transformed into a tool of political competition. With the exception of the ICC, whose direct mandate is to prosecute individuals for genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression, most of the other political actors are mainly interested in the Sudanese oil and the other trading opportunities.

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