The most important Africa related news story of the summer has just arrived. Mr. Moreno-Ocampo, the prosecutor at the International Criminal Court has formally requested an arrest warrant for Sudan’s president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir. Mr. Al-Bashir thereby becomes the first international leader accused of the highest crimes against humanity. Mr Moreno-Ocampo declared he has found “reasonable grounds” to accuse the Sudanese president on ten different counts which include three counts of genocide for killing members of the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa ethnic groups; five counts of crimes against humanity for murder, extermination, forcible transfer, torture and rape; and two counts of war crimes for attacks on civilian populations in Darfur. “Al Bashir failed to defeat the rebels, so he went after the people,” the Argentinean prosecutor declared. It is expected that the judges will authorize the arrest warrant for Sudan’s president since they have accepted all the previous 11 arrest warrants requested by Moreno-Ocampo in the last five years. While news broadcasting companies are trying to find more people talking about the topic, exploring consequences, future actions or worry about the future of the UN peace-keeping troops, I simply wonder myself: what does this indictment really mean?

Firstly, one of China’s more important political allies in Africa has officially been charged with Genocide. Regardless of the future actions and finalities of such an act, from now on, the Chinese government will officially be linked to the new Hitler (Mugabe will fade away for a while since the indictment of al-Bashir is simply breathtaking.) of the world. I want to assure everyone reading this post that even if al-Bashir will never be arrested, his political life is more or less over. Any government recognizing his legitimacy from now on will immediately be linked to the charges. Yes, everyone has the right to a fair trial, but politics does not follow that rule. On the contrary!

Will China oppose this indictment? I’m not that sure actually. This is the first international charge of genocide ever recorded. Our grand-grand children will talk about the 14^th of July as a historic date. This is a symbolic date that will never be forgotten. I wonder whether the date for the announcement was randomly or specifically chosen chosen due to the fact that today is also the national day of France, whose famous motto is well-known around the world: Liberté, égalité, fraternité. And today that is the case for the Sudanese. Their first signal of freedom has just been made. Coming back to China, from this day China will officially be conducting business with a government put under the most terrible legal accusation in the world. Al-Bashir will most likely be banned from travelling; the African Union will tacitly or directly have to distance itself from him and his government. The future looks dire both for the Sudanese and the Chinese governments.

What’s the next step? According to the UN regulations, the Security Council will meet and decide how the arrest warrant will be implemented, when and how. The trick here though is that the judges have not yet officially enacted the warrant and they have two months before doing so. What does that mean? It means that for two months the international pressure will be mounting against countries like Russia and China. Public outrage, angry editorials, mass protests, we will see it all. We will be experiencing the largest mass movement around the world meant to put pressure on China and Russia. If the vote would have been given tomorrow, then maybe the two powers would have vetoed it but since two months will pass before the warrant is approved, then it will be much more difficult for these countries to oppose. And I assure you those judges are in no hurry!

The reality at the end of the day is that the place that needs real changes the most, the people in Darfur, have only achieved a symbolic victory. Their lives will not be changed significantly. They are not safer than in the past, though some analysts could safely argue that the government will be more cautious before sending more troops in Darfur. Genocide will not stop. The 2,5 million refugees will not return home. If this conflict will ever chase to exist without killing other hundreds of thousands of people, this is something for the international community to decide. It is not the indictment itself but how it will be played out that will make a difference in the lives of the Darfurians.

Moreover, some general trends are easily predictable. The Sudanese government will not accept the authority of the ICC. It will try to find supporters among the Arab League members, the African Union states or directly from Russia and China. It will fight this indictment both legally and ideologically (play the race card or the poverty card). It remains to be seen who exactly will have the courage to fight for al-Bashir directly. He is no longer just the president of Sudan: he is the killer who is the president of Sudan.

Once seven more UN peacekeepers were killed in Sudan I waited. Knowing people working for the UN Secretary General, having a good grasp of the events, I silently waited for something. I knew Ki-Moon’s frustrations with what has been happening in Darfur. I was curious whether or not he will be able to pull it through though. He did. I have no doubts that the Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon did not oppose such an indictment in fact fully agreed with it. Truth to be told, he owed it to the hundreds of thousands of Sudanese killed in the war and also to all the peacekeepers that lost their lives protecting civilians.

There is something else few analysts will talk about these days. It’s about a man who consciously carries the guilt of not acting in time to protect the lives of one million Rwandans who were decimated in 1994. A man who put the bases and carried a long and exhausting battle to make the ICC an internationally recognized legal parastatal organization. A man who has been struggling with his consciousness for over 14 years: Kofi Annan. The fact that in 2008 another potential genocide is stopped makes the ex-under secretary general at least somewhat feel in peace with himself. He failed to act in 1994, and this brought the death of one million people. However, through the organization that will carry his legacy for many years to come, Kofi Annan might just have saved 2,5 million lives.

Things to be considered:

Sooner or later the Janjaweed will retaliate. I think the UN should withdraw its entire non-military staff from Darfur and transfer it to Nairobi.

I also believe Argentina should increase security measures to maximum alert. We are talking about an Arab state that is charged with genocide. We are also talking about an army so desperate that will make any deals to get its revenge. And that could very well include deals with Al-Qaeda.

I admire Mr. Moreno-Ocampo determination to indict Sudan’s president but he should be very careful. His life is certainly in danger. He just made the first genocide accusation in the world.

We are all witnessing a reconfiguration of the world politics. China’s answer to this new pole of judicial power is crucial to either establishing China as an honorable, mature, international partner, or as an enemy of democracy, legality and civility. Until then, be aware: if you make it, one day you will be talking to your grandchildren about this. Let’s hope this story will have a happy end though.

For more articles by this author visit the African Politics Portal at http://codrinarsene.com

Related posts:

1. Genocide in Darfur: Your thoughts on the Indictment of Sudanese President al-Bashir
2. Sudan, Darfur: As al-Bashir Kicks out Relief Agencies, he’s now Guilty as Charged
3. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashi Tours Darfur
4. Sudan-Darfur: African Union Wants al-Bashir’s Genocide Charge Suspended [Podcast]
5. Sudan and ICC: the Moment of Truth
6. Hunt for Sudanese War Crimes Suspects: Facebook and Google Join Forces
7. ICC Issues Arrest Warrant for Sudan’s President